Making money betting on football is as hard of a task as there is. Some stats indicate that over 97% of the people that make sports bets lose money.
And when you think about it, it actually makes sense. The sports betting industry across the word generates billions of dollars in income each year, and all of that money is coming out of your pockets.
So practically nobody makes money betting on sports. And the reason for that is really simple. Almost every time that you make a bet, that bet is undervalued.
How Bookies Come Up With Odds
Odds are basically a reflection of probabilities.
Each bookie employes a team of statisticians who come up with these probabilities.
So, imagine Man UTD playing away at Chelsea. For this match, statisticians have come up with the following outcome probabilities.
Chelsea Win 35% Draw 30% Man UTD Win 35%
These probabilities are then converted into odds by dividing each probability by 100.
Chelsea win 100/35= 2.85 Draw 100/30=3.33 Man UTD Win= 100/35=2.85
Notice that if you add all the above probabilities together you would get about 100%.
100% represents a fair market margin. Meaning that if all the markets attract equal action from the bettors over a sample size of many bets there will be no profit for either the bettors or the bookmakers.
In other words, a fair market margin means that there is no advantage either for the bettor or for the bookmaker. And everyone should break even in the long run.
The bookies, just like you and I, are in this to make a profit.
So they add their own margin to these odds.
After the margin is added, the probabilities and odds may look something like this.
Chelsea Win 40% Draw=35% Man UTD Win 40%
Chelsea Win 100/40= 2.5 Draw 100/35= 2.85 Man UTD 100/40=2.5
If you add all new probabilities together you would get 105%. The 5% represents the long term profit the bookie is expected to make. Usually, the bookie margin ranges anywhere from 2% (for sharp bookies) up to 25% (soft bookies).
Meaning that a bookie will make anywhere between £20 to £250 for every £1000 wagered by the bettors.
Why profibets is the best tipping service in whole betting industry?
A value bet is when the probability of a bet winning is greater than the probability reflected in the odds that a bookie provides.
To illustrate this, we’ll use the same example given above.
Man UTD is playing away at Chelsea and the bookies have Man UTD win at 2.5.
This means that the bookies believe that Man UTD has a 40% (100/2.5) chance of winning the match.
However, through various calculations and your knowledge of the teams, you have determined that the true probability of a Man UTD win is 50%.
Therefore, the actual odds for a Man UTD win should be 2 (100/50) and not 2.5.
The bookie has made a mistake and you have identified a value bet.
If you are constantly able to find events where the probability of the event occurring is higher than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds, then you will win in the long run.
With value betting, it is important to bet for the long-term.
The goal with this football betting strategy is not to win every bet, the goal is to constantly place bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds.
When betting on a large volume of bets the variance will even out and only sports bettors who are able to consistently beat the odds at the sharp bookmakers will be profitable.
On Profibets we use Big Data algorithms to come up with the true probabilities of betting outcomes. We then scroll over 100 bookies to identify markets that have been overpricing. This is the way we identify value bets and this is what allowed us to generate a 19% betting ROI over the past 3 years.